Nice value on a dog here, Aaron. The one thing that concerns me is the home/road disparity for Colorado...like you said though, good value and likely worth the gamble.
I was eyeing the Dbacks/Phillies game yesterday with the Lee/Arroyo matchup. Arroyo has been so Arroyo this year and was in a homer-friendly ballpark, so I considered the Over 8, Phillies TT Over 4, or Phillies -135ish, but decided instead to go with Philly -1.5 (+125)...and of course they were down 5-0 right out of the gate but came back to win 6-5, with both totals going over. That'll teach me to play the suckers' runline bet!
Interesting study, Wade. I wonder if this becomes even more relevant now with the more rigid rookie salaries. A few years ago you could say "Yeah first rounders outperform, but does that make it worth it (or worth it to trade up?", since the cost savings of a slightly worse (or two slightly worse) players would make it worth it. Now it is probably unlikely that the marginal cost savings would be that beneficial given the significant talent/success disparity.