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Wade Geraci
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How good were Parcells' NE drafts?

05/04/2014 2:55pm

We all know Bill Parcells was great at picking players. From 1993-1996 he selected a host of guys who helped make the Pats a legit NFL franchise and some who were part of the 2001-2004 dynasty. But exactly how great was he?

I added Parcells' 1993 draft to our data from 1994-2003 and then looked at his selections vs. our median careers for each range of the draft (top 10, picks 11-20, etc.).

He picked 40 players in New England. After eyeballing each player's career production vs. the median for that draft slot, I identified 21 players who exceeded expectations, 9 players who were close to the medians, and 10 who were less productive than expected. Most of the "less productive players" were later picks.

Obviously missing on a high pick (starter vs. bust) hurts much more than "missing" on a really late pick (backup for two years vs. guy who doesn't make roster). A closer look at his earlier picks is even more impressive.

Parcells had 3 top 10 picks. Bledsoe and McGinest exceeded expectations and Terry Glenn (we all know that deal) hit the median. His other first rounder, Ty Law at No. 23, was obviously outstanding.

Our overall draft study showed that the fourth round is the latest you can reasonably expect to find a player who will make double-digit starts in his career. Parcells had 22 picks in rounds 1-4 with 15 exceeding expectations. Additionally, he made 10 selections in the first two rounds with only 1 bust. I believe these are the 2 key figures.

Parcells still found gems in the late rounds with 6 players carving out careers of at least 4 seasons including Troy Brown and Max Lane.

Our data set doesn't include many of Belichick's drafts but maybe we'll grab some figures for his guys and compare them to the medians. Most of the info is years, games, starts, etc., and not stats, so it could work.

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