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2014 NFL Draft E

Wade Geraci
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A look at quarterbacks drafted from 1994-'03

04/29/2014 6:53pm
last edited:04/29/2014 7:32pm

A few days ago, Tom and I released some findings from our draft study covering 1994-'03. Today we'll dig a little deeper into quarterbacks by round.

First round

One of our initial discoveries showed that during our sample, the median career for quarterbacks selected in the first round was similar to David Carr's (76 starts, 56%, 14,452 yards, 65 TDs, 67 INTS). This paints a clearer picture of what franchises can expect after spending a first round pick on a QB - its not a 50/50 that you'll get a franchise guy. 

The most likely scenario is that the same team will need to make another decision at quarterback a few years down the road. Carr, Joey Harrington, Chad Pennington, Rex Grossman and Byron Leftwich are other players from the "most likely career" range. 

As we all know, Peyton Manning was the best QB taken in the first round. Finally, there was no shortage of first round busts from our sample. Ryan Leaf (2nd), Heath Shuler (3rd) and Akili Smith (3rd) were all taken in the top 5 and failed to make 25 starts. Jim Druckenmiller went 26th, started just 1 game and threw only 1 TD pass.

Second round

The median career for a second round QB was Charlie Batch, who started 55 games, completed 57% of his attempts for 11,085 yards, 61 TDs and 52 INTs. Pretty striking how similar this career type is to Carr's. Drew Brees was the best second round selection from our sample. Marques Tuiasosopo, who only started 2 games, was the biggest reach/bust. Every other second round QB during those years started at least 21 games. 

Additionally, while a few of the first round QBs posted career completion percentages below 50%, none taken in the second was below 54%. The only difference between the second round QBs and first rounders may have been early playing time opportunity.

Third round

The median career for a third rounder was 5 years, 22 games and 12 starts. Some players in this range were Chris Simms and Bobby Hoying. Brian Griese (83 starts, 19,440 yards, 119 TDs, 99 INTs, 63%) had the best career.

Fourth round

David Garrard had the best career of the fourth rounders (76 starts, 16,003 yards, 89 TDs, 54 INTS, 62%). The median career was a multi-year backup who saw about half as much action as our third round median.

Fifth round

The median career for a 5th, 6th and 7th round QB was a guy who hung around on rosters for a year or 2 but saw very little action. A.J. Feeley and Mike McMahon were the only 5th rounders to start a handful of games.

Sixth round

We know its all about Tom Brady here, but Matt Hasselbeck (152 starts, 3 Pro Bowls) and Marc Bugler (95 starts, 2 Pro Bowls) also had successful careers.

Seventh round

Gus Frerotte (didn't realize it was Fre...) had the best career with guys like Koy Detmer, Glenn Foley and Tim Rattay putting together careers as backups.

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