WhattaPlay Mobile version is under development. Only limited features are available at this time.

NCAAF Handicapping E

NCAAF Handicapping Schedules

Close
NCAAF Handicapping Pick'Em Results

Close
Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 548
Followers: 10
Picks: 0%

UCLA vs Washington

11/13/2013 10:53pm
last edited:11/13/2013 11:33pm

UCLA (-2.5) vs. Washington

At this small number for a home favorite, oddsmakers share my sentiment that Washington is in fact the better team.  The #13 ranked team favored by less than a field goal against an unranked opponent raises a huge red flag and confirms my suspicions about who they believe should win this game.  These teams have very similar resumes, having lost to Oregon and Stanford, with Washington playing a slightly tougher schedule so far facing Arizona State and Boise State to UCLA's Utah opponent.  Both teams are very similarly balanced, featuring strong rushing and passing attacks, passing defenses, and questionable run defenses.  The difference comes down to a few key matchups, where I believe one team's leader is highly overrated.  Brett Hundley is putting up some impressive numbers this year and is a very highly rated draft prospect, but I'm not seeing it.  He consistently makes poor reads against aggressive defenses and gives his team no chance to win in those games.  His 2 worst games of the season have come against Oregon and Stanford, and against Oregon he was especially brutal finishing with under 100 yards passing.  Keith Price on the other hand is one of the most seasoned passers in the country, cool as a cucumber against all competition, and has consistently turned in solid performances against all competition including Oregon and Stanford, and especially against Stanford where he shined and led his team to a 200 yard advantage in an unfortunate losing effort that began with a kickoff return touchdown.  Washington also holds a bit of an advantage in the rushing game with a capable and consistent bell-cow back Bishop Sankey who is averaging 25 carries and 145 ypg.  The UCLA offense has sputtered lately since losing Jordon James at RB (he is questionable for this Friday matchup), and they have no consistent ball carrier to handle the duties, relying almost exclusively on Hundley to provide all of the offense.

I feel the wrong team is favored here with UCLA boosted by an empty ranking despite showing no signs of being one of the top 13 teams in the country, especially when compared to an opponent with an identical resume.  It's not a significant upset because I feel Washington is in fact the better team and the line is small, but I think they get the job done and take the victory.

3 comments

Wade Geraci
Posts: 50
Takes score: 2393
Picks: 48.1%
11/13/2013 11:37pm

Love it. Also love Keith Price. 

How often do the odds-makers need to adjust for these types of "empty rankings"? As we know, sometimes there is no difference between the 15th ranked team and the 35th best team that is unranked. 

Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8592
Picks: 0%
11/14/2013 1:29pm

We know that rankings are not actually rankings of the best teams, they are standings. Remember 3 weeks ago when TTU was ranked #7? They were 7th in the standings. It's like saying KC is the best NFL team. Like you said there often is very little difference between the 15th and 35th best teams, and it is obvious when oddsmakers feel the same way setting a line like this. Making the 15th ranked team (and a popular one) favored by less than a fg against an unranked opponent at home is very telling of what they think of these teams. It confirms my suspicion that Washington is the better team right now, because one would think oddsmakers could come away with even money even if UCLA was favored by 7. At 2.5 they are telling me they think Washington is going to win, and they can't make UCLA a bigger favorite and risk the types of bets on Washington that would cause them to have to go to other casinos to hedge their own action. If the line was indeed up near 7 then I would start to consider a multi unit play because the value would be huge.

related
best takes

whattaplay
popular

REGISTER FOR WHATTAPLAY
1. Sign Up
2
3
4
Join and login using

or fill the information below

Cancel
1
2. Select Location
3
4
Cancel
Back
1
2
3. Select Topics
4

Which topics (sports, teams, players) interest you the most? Select up to ten. (Optional)

Search Topics
Browse Topics
Top Sports | Other sports
Custom Topics

Can't find the topic you want?

  • Select the closest topic using search or SEARCH to the left. Your topic will be added under the category you select.
  • Parent path: /
  • Add Custom Topic
SELECTED TOPICS
Cancel
Back
1
2
3
4. Select Interests

What type of sports stories interest you the most? Select up to three. (Optional)

Selected interests:

Note: you and anyone who accepts this invite will be connected.
Back
Close


WHATTAPLAY


Gives fans a personal sports page that keeps score.