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Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8586
Followers: 10
Picks: 0%

Super Bowl XLVIII

01/31/2014 5:43pm
last edited:02/02/2014 3:29pm

Super Bowl XLVII

Denver (-2) vs. Seattle

Unfortunately I can't do a write up for this game in a similar fashion as I have done in the past.  Both of these teams have incredible resumes and are supremely balanced, excelling in all phases of the game.  There is, however, one matchup that I think provides an advantage to Seattle.  Clearly the Denver pass offense is so

     
4 comments
Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8586
Picks: 0%
02/02/2014 2:41pm
last edited:02/02/2014 3:29pm

Watching Seattle play against San Francisco right after Denver played New England had a similar feel to watching Alabama play LSU in the later game after a pairing of top PAC-12 of ACC teams.  Yes, the elite teams from outside the SEC are outstanding teams, but the type of play and physicality was on a different level in the SEC.  The degree to which this is apparent is considerably less in the NFL, but it only takes a minor advantage in talent to make a significant difference in a game.

For what it's worth I'm playing 3 props on this game:

Seattle -3.5 (+170), Seattle -7.5 (+325), Game MVP - Golden Tate (+4000).  I don't want to play a small odds player like Lynch or Wilson who are going off at +400 or less.  My thinking on Tate is he has big play ability in the passing game, but he was also 2nd in the NFL in punt return yardage and 9th in return average at 11.5 yards per return.  With most players a single large punt return can skew the average statistic, but while Tate was 1 of only 2 players with 40 or more return attempts, he was also 1 of 2 players with over 50 return attempts.  7 times this year Tate had over 40 return yards in a game, and 8 returns of over 20 yards.  The punting game was actually one of the very few areas where Denver struggled this year ranking in the bottom third in the league in punting net and return average allowed.  It's obviously a long shot, but that's why I like Tate at long shot odds.  In a game where I don't expect anybody to stand out offensively, a big punt return can be what he needs like Desmond Howard, in addition to the possibility that he can win the MVP on offense.

Wade Geraci
Posts: 50
Takes score: 2393
Picks: 48.1%
02/01/2014 8:17pm

I wonder how much recent opponents will play into this one. Seattle shut down Brees and New Orleans and then beat what I believe was arguably the best team in the NFL to get to the Super Bowl. Denver beat a very average San Diego club and then the Patriots minus Gronk, Vince, Mayo, Talib, Vollmer, Tommy Kelly, Brandon Spikes, etc. etc. Not saying that Denver hasn't dealt with injuries, they have overcome major losses, but the Patriots team they defeated two weeks ago just wasn't a great team or close to San Francisco. This matchup is a big step up for Denver.

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Greg Caldarelli
Posts: 5
Takes score: 1355
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HARVIN IMPACT?

01/24/2014 3:01am
last edited:01/24/2014 10:52am

What kind of impact will he have on the Super Bowl? In my opinion, I do not think that he will be able to contribute much to the game. If anything, he will just end up being more of a distraction due to the fact that no one has seen him play with the Seahawks except against the Vikings, the one game he played. So therefore, Denver might have to be concerned about the way that Seattle will utili

     
3 comments
Tom Johnson
Posts: 72
Takes score: 1930
Picks: 50%
02/03/2014 1:54pm
last edited:02/03/2014 2:21pm

He had a pretty big impact, two big reverses and a kickoff return touchdown. 

Wade Geraci
Posts: 50
Takes score: 2393
Picks: 48.1%
01/24/2014 4:10am

This has to be one of those situations where the average fan is saying, "he's hurt and can't make an impact" but the opposing defensive coordinator is still thinking, "what if they line him up in the backfield... we gotta respect him when they show reverse... watch out for bunch formations and overloads when they could set up a screen for him."

Mike Mazzaferro
Posts: 9
Takes score: 903
Followers: 4
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Super Bowl Line

01/22/2014 2:20pm
last edited:01/24/2014 10:51am

I suppose we can have another thread when it gets closer to kickoff, especially to discuss the "How much cleavage will Bruno Mars show?" props, but right now I just want to talk about the line.

Frankly, I was shocked when I saw that Seattle was an underdog.  During the AFCCG, as a Pats fan, my thoughts were "Wow, Denver is dominating this game.  Denver will get smoked by the NFC

     
4 comments
Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8586
Picks: 0%
01/23/2014 3:14am
last edited:01/23/2014 3:15am

I must say, this game is tricky to objectively figure out.  Denver has an awesome resume, balanced in all phases of the game, which is making it difficult for me to justify Seattle.  It's obvious, but how the Seattle defense can affect Manning is the key.  Manning is one of the all time masters at neutralizing the opposing pass rush by consistently getting rid of the ball quickly and identifying weak points in the pass protection and helping his linemen to adjust to it before the snap.  He was sacked only 20 times all season, and only once this season (Indianapolis) was he hit a significant number of times.  Seattle generates a ton of pressure averaging nearly 3 sacks a game and hitting the quarterback plenty despite not needing to blitz in order to do it.  I suspect that Seattle is going to hold Denver to 17 or fewer points, but I'm having a difficult time poking any holes in Denver's game that Seattle can exploit.

Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8586
Picks: 0%
01/22/2014 10:14pm

"I know the public likes to bet on Peyton Manning, and may be reluctant to back Seattle away from their dominant home field"

This pretty much sums it up.  I was very surprised to see Seattle as underdogs, but the only negative press either of these teams has received recently is about the Seattle offense which hasn't scored more than 23 points in 2 months (the defense has scored a few times in this span though).

Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8586
Followers: 10
Picks: 0%

Chicago vs Dallas

12/09/2013 11:07pm
last edited:12/21/2013 11:42pm

CHICAGO (-1) vs. Dallas

Tonight's MNF matchup appears to be an exciting game on paper, a pair of explosive passing offenses against at times porous defenses.  Could be fireworks, but I think one team will come out with a convincing win.

To me this game comes down largely to the venue as well as a couple key matchups.  Dallas has been a terrible road team this season, av

     
2 comments
Wade Geraci
Posts: 50
Takes score: 2393
Picks: 48.1%
12/21/2013 11:42pm

Also night work with this one.  Have you been hitting more on NFL than NCAAF games this season?

Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8586
Picks: 0%
12/10/2013 12:14am
last edited:12/10/2013 12:14am

Plus today is my sister's birthday as well as Dick Butkus. Da Bears win one for Anna Schulman and Dick Butkus. 

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