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Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8589
Followers: 10
Picks: 0%

Missouri vs. Auburn

12/07/2013 7:37pm
last edited:12/09/2013 3:14am

Missouri (-1) vs. Auburn

Today's SEC Championship Game features a pair of teams few expected to be here.  There are a few matchup keys that I feel gives this game some value though.

Firstly, we have a lower ranked team favored on a neutral field over a higher ranked team who just defeated the country's best team, Alabama.  This is an obvious red flag for me which makes me

     
2 comments
Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8589
Picks: 0%
12/09/2013 10:53pm

Auburn are playing like a bunch of f*cking maniacs right now.  I watched them a couple times earlier in the year get outgained by a non BCS school, have to score late to beat Mississippi State, and get crushed by LSU.  But this team right now is insane.

I think in the bowl games we are going to see some crooked numbers.  There has been a knock on the SEC for not playing defense like it has in the past but I think it's because there are some truly outstanding offenses that nobody will be able to stop.

Wade Geraci
Posts: 50
Takes score: 2393
Picks: 48.1%
12/08/2013 3:17pm

Apparently there is no line-generating model that expects a team to rush 545 yards against a quality defense!!!  

However, as I've said time and time again, the BCS has once again done a tremendous job. Everything worked itself out. The SEC gets to defend its streak with a team that beat the No. 1 team and defending champ. And they're playing the most talented non-SEC team in a decade. Very excited for this one.

Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8589
Followers: 10
Picks: 0%

Pittsburgh vs north carolina

11/14/2013 5:28pm
last edited:11/14/2013 6:21pm

PITTSBURGH (pk) vs. North Carolina

This week Pitt gets caught in the ultimate letdown spot, an average team coming off their game of the year victory over Notre Dame. UNC is a team on the rise winning their last 3 games after playing very tough against Miami and Virginia Tech. To me there are 2 keys to this game revolving around North Carolina's biggest weaknesses. Firstly and most import

     
1 comments
Wade Geraci
Posts: 50
Takes score: 2393
Picks: 48.1%
11/15/2013 1:18am

Statistically, these teams appear to be pretty similar. But my gut tells me that UNC is more talented. Nice catch on Pitt coming off their emotion victory over ND.

Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8589
Followers: 10
Picks: 0%

Louisville vs Houston

11/13/2013 11:10pm
last edited:11/14/2013 1:55am

LOUISVILLE (-15.5) vs. Houston
I went against Houston last week unsuccessfully, but in this one I am calling for a complete blowout.  Houston managed to maintain their turnover luck last week against Central Florida, forcing UCF to turn it over on their first 2 possessions inside the Houston 10, and in the end Houston was able to stay within the #.  They will receive no such gifts fr
     
1 comments
Wade Geraci
Posts: 50
Takes score: 2393
Picks: 48.1%
11/13/2013 11:32pm
last edited:11/13/2013 11:32pm

About 2/3's of the way through your post I said to myself, "This is a three touchdowns game."  .... and you say four.

Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8589
Followers: 10
Picks: 0%

UCLA vs Washington

11/13/2013 10:53pm
last edited:11/13/2013 11:33pm

UCLA (-2.5) vs. Washington

At this small number for a home favorite, oddsmakers share my sentiment that Washington is in fact the better team.  The #13 ranked team favored by less than a field goal against an unranked opponent raises a huge red flag and confirms my suspicions about who they believe should win this game.  These teams have very similar resumes, having lost to Oreg

     
3 comments
Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8589
Picks: 0%
11/16/2013 2:48pm

Yuck. Washington fumbled their opening 2 possessions and Keith Price got hurt. Still outgained UCLA but the damage was done. 

Aaron Schulman
Posts: 62
Takes score: 8589
Picks: 0%
11/14/2013 1:29pm

We know that rankings are not actually rankings of the best teams, they are standings. Remember 3 weeks ago when TTU was ranked #7? They were 7th in the standings. It's like saying KC is the best NFL team. Like you said there often is very little difference between the 15th and 35th best teams, and it is obvious when oddsmakers feel the same way setting a line like this. Making the 15th ranked team (and a popular one) favored by less than a fg against an unranked opponent at home is very telling of what they think of these teams. It confirms my suspicion that Washington is the better team right now, because one would think oddsmakers could come away with even money even if UCLA was favored by 7. At 2.5 they are telling me they think Washington is going to win, and they can't make UCLA a bigger favorite and risk the types of bets on Washington that would cause them to have to go to other casinos to hedge their own action. If the line was indeed up near 7 then I would start to consider a multi unit play because the value would be huge.

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